Take the risk out of winning when betting on Australian greyhound racing by letting an expert do the form for you. Find out which boxes are best by choosing a Gold, Silver of Bronze package from jesmcdonald.com.

Don’t rely on luck when you want to win at the greyhounds. Expert form analysis by jesmcdonald.com will give you the tools to make money when betting on the dogs.

PROBABILITIES

Converting the betting odds into implied probabilities of winning may prove a more intuitive tool to use than viewing betting odds in isolation, especially for the novice.

To convert odds into implied probabilities, simply divide 1 by the decimal odds.

For example, a greyhound with a market price of $3 implies that the market believes its probability of winning is roughly 33% (1/$3.00 = 0.33). We say roughly because the sum of all probabilities must equate to 100%. However, because bookmakers and the TAB clip the odds, the market odds available are actually less than what would be available without an intermediary, thus elevating the sum of the field’s probabilities above 100%. For example, if you and a friend bet on a coin toss, and the odds are $2 for heads and $2 for tails, then the winner will win $10 on a $10 bet. If the TAB were acting as intermediary, then the odds would likely be $1.95 for heads and $1.95 for tails. The winner would record a net win of $9.50 and the TAB would keep 50c (the two players threw $10 x 2 into the win pool, and the eventual winner received $10 x $1.95 = $19.50, a net win of $9.50). The $1.95 odds imply the probability of winning the coin toss is 51.28% which of course we know is not true (it is 50% on any coin toss).

To overcome this, you can build yourself a “Wheel of Fortune” (WOoF) in excel like the one below. You’ll note that the probabilities of each greyhound adds up to a figure greater than 100%. However, the wheel of fortune adjusts the percentages here of each runner to accurately illustrate the probability of winning according to the market. Using the wheel, you can try and imagine which number you might back based on risk and return. Or alternatively, the next time you see a greyhound runner with odds of $10, the wheel can help you visualise your chances of winning (again, if the market is correct!).

Box Number Odds Offered to win Odds translated into Probability of Winning

1 $10.00 10%

2 $5.00 20%

3 $2.10 48%

4 $8.00 13%

5 $12.00 8%

6 $20.00 5%

7 $26.00 4%

8 $16.00 6%

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